Padres and Mets discuss trade scenarios

8:50 a.m.: A potential deal between the two sides would be a bit more complex than initially thought. By Joel Sherman of the New York Post (by Twitter), the Padres would unsurprisingly need to eat up a good chunk of the money owed to Hosmer to make this deal work. Specifically, the Padres would cover approximately $30 million or more of Hosmer’s deal, bringing Hosmer down per year to $6-7 million per year, by Sherman.

The Mets would also get a reliever Emilio Pagan in the case. Pagan has looked like a top reliever arm at times during his five seasons in the bigs with the Mariners, Rays, A’s and Padres. The 30-year-old is an option to close out the games if he stays in San Diego, while in New York he would fit into a pretty deep collection of right-handed setup weapons that includes Adam Ottavino, Drew Smith, Michael Castro, Trevor Mayand Seth Lugo.

7:55 a.m.: The Mets have spent the offseason pushing hard toward building a competitive team, but the fragility of an offseason win became evident yesterday with news of the ace Jacob of Grom be closed for the next four weeks. The panic alarm has sounded, but the Mets are not without solutions.

In fact, they happen to have had conversations with the Padres over the past two weeks about different trade scenarios, at least one of which could bring another arm to New York to help plug the leak. According to Dennis Lin, Ken Rosenthal and others at The Athletic, a potential deal could center on Eric Hosmer and chris paddack heading to the Mets, while Dominique Smith would go to San Diego.

The Padres have been trying to get rid of Hosmer’s money for a while now, and the coasting Mets might now have a big enough need in the rotation to consider taking him back. There’s some urgency for the Padres here, as Hosmer’s partial no-trade clause turns into full 10-and-5 rights at the end of this season. Of course, if he’s traded, Hosmer’s contract has a clause that says he can’t be traded twice without his consent, so he’ll essentially get his no-trade clause by the end of the campaign. 2022, no matter who he plays for.

With $59 million over four years remaining on his deal, Hosmer has no positive trade value – not after fWAR totals of 0.0, 0.9, -0.3 and -0.1 over the four recent seasons. Going into his 32-year-old season, Hosmer is not expected to blossom overnight. Besides, the Mets don’t need him at all, not with Pete Alonso on the list.

Acquiring Hosmer would mean pushing the Mets deeper into luxury tax territory with a payroll approaching $300 million, notes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. However, the Mets might be willing to take it if they can bolster their rotation at the same time.

Enter Paddack. The 26-year-old still has three years of team control and a significant advantage. It’s far from a sure thing, however. His numbers went down for the third straight season last year when he finished with a 5.07 ERA in 108 1/3 innings. A slightly torn UCL could be the cause of the decline, but it’s not necessarily a situation that has fully resolved itself. Paddack would therefore be an option to slip into deGrom’s rotation, but he’s far from a panacea for the Mets’ long-term concerns.

In the short term, it might not even be an upgrade on Tylor Megill, the presumptive fifth starter in deGrom’s absence. Megill posted a 4.52 ERA / 4.69 FIP over 18 starts spanning 89 2/3 innings in 2021 – his first glimpse of big league action. The Mets could definitely start the season with Megill in the rotation and see how things go from there.

For the Padres part, their motivation would be primarily to get rid of Hosmer’s contract. They theoretically have enough spin depth to withstand the loss of Paddack, and in Smith they would recover a comparable bat that is cheaper, more versatile and with more theoretical advantages than Hosmer. He’s also under the team’s control for two more seasons beyond 2022, though those seasons aren’t guaranteed, if he continues to struggle on the flat.

For the first part of his career, Smith’s story was that he needed to be at bat, but his natural first base position was spoken, so his ceiling was no more than that of a small player. . Then the designated hitter came to the NL in 2020, Smith started taking flyballs in left field, and the offensive promise came to fruition with a .316/.377/.616 line in 199 plate appearances at shortened campaign course.

He saw fairly steady playing time again in 2021, but the numbers hit an 86 wRC+ by way of a line of .244/.304/.363 in 494 board appearances, more than doubling his previous record. career in this regard. The Padres need a left fielder, and Smith could step in directly at first base should this deal fall through. Still, for San Diego, this deal is mostly about Hosmer leaving. There are options for left field – including the old Met Michel Comfort — but Smith would certainly be worth signing up if acquiring him meant taking Hosmer off the payroll.