Fresh off the winners of Thursday’s 16/1 and 13/2 and also a couple of profitable picks, Raceolly is back with his tips for Friday’s action at Aintree on day two of the Grand National meeting. .
I’m taking a chance again with one I supported in Cheltenham on this in THE BOURGE OF BROOMFIELD. He had excuses there after liking them, but he stumbled badly and lost his position, not having a chance to get back on terms there afterwards. The six-year-olds have a good record of winning four of the last nine (no races in 2020 due to lockout) and also top the stats in qualifying and having had a recent race. He won point-to-point in the first outing, so a step up the journey could be ideal and was sent off 11/4 favorite for the Betfair Hurdle before that effort from Cheltenham, but he wasn’t seen to put in the best of effort either. a slow pace. Good efforts on flat tracks before Cheltenham could also be seen to better effect on the flat Aintree course.
VINA ARDANZA ran a great race to go down a neck in a Grade 3 last time in only his second hurdle start and represents the winning yardage of 2019 at Gordon Elliott. The five-year-olds have won nine of the last 19 renewals of this one although none of the last four (no riders last year, 3rd and 4th in 2019, 2nd and 3rd in 2018 and no place in 2017). Ireland have won the last two races and Vina Ardanza is improving with each race and is already ranked fourth best in the race with 141 in the official rankings. She ran in the last 30 days, which is a bonus judging by recent runs, 17 of the last 18 did as well.
ROYAL SEAL He might be a double-figure age now, but he’s still as good as ever and skipped Cheltenham to come here for this after a bit of a break. Form after a break of over 50 days since arriving here in Britain reads 201311261112. It doesn’t quite match many of the trends in recent years but Alan King won this multiple times with Voy Por You and the 10+ horses won this for four years on the bounce between 2003-2005 although they have not won it since then despite 26 attempts with only seven places. Step up in trip is interesting here in the last few races and he gave 6lbs to two lower priced rivals opposing here whom he is better off with now, finishing two lengths behind Funambule Sivola and beating Hitman by two lengths.
PAINFUL WAY is very interesting in this and gets overlooked a bit despite the strong prior form here. He finished a good 4th at the Grand Sefton in November and was running a massive race at the Becher when he unfortunately got knocked down, that Becher Chase effort was 1 pound higher and back-to-back wins in March put him back at the disadvantage for the Attempts. in this and the Scottish National. Stopping when the chance was gone at Ayr and staying out of trouble with such a quick changeover shouldn’t be a problem and experience here always comes in handy (11 of the last 17 winners had previous form over the fences). Kids 10 and older have won this race eight times in the last 19 years and three times in the last five.
SKYTASTIC he’s striking as he’s undefeated in four starts and with a further potential upgrade now ramped up on the trip. Six-year-olds have won 11 of the last 19 renewals and skipping the Cheltenham Festival is a huge advantage for this as 14 of the last 21 winners avoided Cheltenham before winning this one. Skytastic’s win at Doncaster worked well with plenty of winners in that race and he showed another side at Ascot last time when he took a win over one deemed good enough to race at Ballymore at the Cheltenham Festival when giving him £5. Sam Thomas is having a fantastic season with a 20% win rate after 19 winners from 96 runners and 24 other places and a good partnership with Sam Twiston Davies with the two having a 24% win rate joining forces.
DO IT he might have the highest weight in this but that hasn’t been a burden over the years with the highest weight winning this three times in the last 11 years. His run in the County Hurdle can be forgiven as the race was not run perfectly and before that he finished a good third in Morebattle at Kelso outside of this handicap mark. Interestingly, three of the last 10 winners of this have come from the County Hurdle and all of them have been beaten, also marking the age stat of seven with eight of the last 11 being between the ages of five and seven. Interestingly, nine of the last 11 winners were rated 130 or higher, which would eliminate all but four.